Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 23.065409 27.649549 32.691444 38.619745 45.369741 52.786273 61.520590
2025-07-06 15.118799 20.770078 27.641606 36.488358 47.443484 60.428029 76.833686
2025-07-13 11.924439 18.195743 26.417528 37.716425 52.544735 71.032360 95.479015
2025-07-20 9.711831 16.255287 25.408806 38.691240 56.961519 80.668359 113.137500
2025-07-27 8.201550 14.921975 24.878350 40.017550 61.679573 90.725055 131.651190
2025-08-03 6.954885 13.703144 24.253300 40.995948 65.812586 100.061516 149.520339
2025-08-10 5.641851 12.094010 22.760933 40.438320 67.574813 106.095318 163.056265
2025-08-17 4.781168 11.077069 22.025185 40.876356 70.707029 114.082578 179.517050
2025-08-24 3.972636 9.979191 20.977787 40.654322 72.733685 120.478092 193.894939
2025-08-31 3.145402 8.651667 19.323340 39.215921 72.684240 123.717583 203.752686
2025-09-07 2.718841 8.064059 18.914258 39.813295 75.853286 131.848651 221.001624
2025-09-14 2.194140 7.124294 17.692114 38.830669 76.318602 135.801737 232.110002
2025-09-21 1.916176 6.747271 17.609765 40.054606 80.813413 146.634594 254.697719
2025-09-28 1.406235 5.615527 15.789956 37.845799 79.299585 147.952661 262.912987
2025-10-05 1.228585 5.343602 15.777861 39.108856 83.927808 159.337825 287.172599
2025-10-12 1.061380 5.045188 15.651191 40.111948 88.124337 170.165565 310.907604
2025-10-19 0.936461 4.838965 15.704965 41.476573 93.043993 182.372977 337.229849
2025-10-26 0.811964 4.586507 15.600092 42.483067 97.333774 193.666315 362.421546
2025-11-02 0.645730 4.101482 14.809632 41.909443 98.558105 199.746105 379.288961
2025-11-09 0.542659 3.818412 14.500447 42.360048 101.766493 209.350935 402.226035
2025-11-16 0.437357 3.465593 13.926033 42.131646 103.596774 216.580857 421.401527
2025-11-23 0.323232 2.987119 12.876679 40.651816 102.784319 219.044030 432.597791
2025-11-30 0.272458 2.808862 12.703602 41.266434 106.282109 229.369262 457.421310